Big friendly giant, and former Vulcans podcast host, Charlie PM gives us his thoughts and forecasts for the upcoming Rugby World Cup in France!
How four years can change a sporting landscape. Eligibility adaptations, financial implosions, law change controversies and league restructures provide a mere sample of the major talking points we have experienced in the most tumultuous period of rugby union’s professional history. Since Siya Kolisi proudly lifted the Webb Ellis trophy for the third time in his nation’s history, more course altering events have likely occurred in the sport than the previous 20 years combined. As some world powers faded, others have risen and resurged; leading to arguably the most open Rugby World Cup we have witnessed. Every Six Nations, Rugby Championship, Autumn Test and Summer Tour has led to this, and it has rarely been so captivating.
Against this backdrop, let’s preview the next 7 weeks of glorious egg chasing and have our say on who we believe will claim the coveted trophy in France 2023. Here are my predictions for the pool and subsequent knockout stages of the Rugby World Cup.
The Pool Stages
Pool A
1st France
Possibly the toughest group to call, it is a 50:50 at the top of the pool that I think France will edge. Les Bleus put a decade of mediocrity and underperformance behind them to become easily the most improved side of this World Cup cycle, looking unbeatable for significant periods. Combining a Shaun Edwards defence with signature flair and invention, Fabien Galthie’s men have transitioned from passionate underdogs to one of the most disciplined and effective outfits in world rugby.
They narrowly missed out on consecutive Six Nations titles this March (losing to a confident Ireland side away from home), yet this seems to have galvanised their squad to continue improving and accelerating their game into the World Cup. Their toughest pool match comes in the tournament’s opening fixture against the formidable All Blacks – the result of which likely determining the group’s outcome. Despite this challenge, I believe the electric home crowd will provide enough extra motivation to tip the balance in the home side’s favour.
Key player: Mathieu Jalibert
With the heart-breaking loss of world class fly half Romain Ntamack to injury, his replacement will have to perform to the best of his considerable ability to keep their scintillating back-line purring.
2nd New Zealand
International rugby’s perpetual masters for more than a century, the majesty and awe of the untouchable All Blacks has been somewhat wounded since their semi-final defeat in the previous World Cup. Famous defats at the hands of Argentina, Australia, South Africa and Ireland reflect a period where victory against them has no longer represented a metaphorical trophy that test sides spend careers striving to obtain, and the subsequent pressure heaped on head coach Ian Foster has been overwhelming.
However, a resounding Rugby Championship title indicates a revival arriving at the perfect time in the build up to the tournament. The addition of experienced tactician Joe Schmidt to the coaching set up has refined their attack and their key systems seem to be returning to their traditional excellence. They will be, as ever, a major player in the quest for the ultimate prize, but with perhaps less confidence than has been customary for so long.
Key player: Ardie Savea
The dynamic Number 8 will need to be at his swashbuckling best to give his team momentum and gain line opportunities throughout the tournament.
3rd Italy
The ever-controversial practise of selecting World Cup pools three years prior to the tournament’s start has had possibly its most profound effect in 2023, with the four best teams in the world finding themselves on one side of the draw and ensuring at least two of them will bid the competition farewell in the quarter-final stage. I will avoid readdressing the issue where possible, as there are few comments that have not been made regarding it in rugby media’s discourse, but sides like Italy might feel as equally aggrieved as their elite counterparts.
After enjoying sporadic success in the infancy of their Six Nations lifespan in the early 2000s, Italy had slumped to perpetual whipping boys of the tournament in the years that followed: prompting regular discussion over their future in the championship and their status as a Tier 1 rugby nation. However, 2022 diffused much of this speculation when they ended a sever year drought of Six Nations victory with a breath-taking last second triumph in Cardiff to sink Wales, and consolidated this by overcoming two-time world champions Australia the following Autumn.
They are a nation brimming with optimism and would likely fancy their chances of an upset had their fortunes fared better and placed them in a less punishing pool. As it stands, the international behemoths of France and New Zealand stand in the way of their knock-out stage pursuit and will provide a challenge I do not see them overcoming.
Key player: Paulo Garbisi
Elegant fullback Ange Capuozzo may be the name on the lips of many, but I have no reservations in labelling Garbisi one of the finest fly halves in world rugby and the nation’s fate will rest on his ability to orchestrate Italy’s game from the centre of the field.
4th Uruguay
The shimmering lights of Japan’s monumental victories in 2019 somewhat resigned Uruguay’s equally stunning upset over Fiji to the shadows, which is a great shame. It was a mammoth performance few saw coming and has helped propel the nation into greater accolade among the best of rugby’s so-called Tier 2 nations. They will enter this tournament with the objective of securing victory over Namibia as a minimum requirement, whilst also eyeing Italy as an outside opportunity to add another scalp to their growing resume.
Key player: Santiago Arata
The Castres scrum half is the heartbeat of the team and will be pertinent to their tournament.
5th Namibia
Namibia have appeared at every World Cup since their debut in 1999, yet remain in search of their first victory. Un unknown quantity for many (admittedly including myself) and will be targeting their encounter with Uruguay as the best opportunity to seize a RWC victory since defeat by only a point to Georgia in 2015. A victory I do not see occurring, but would love to be proven wrong.
Key player: Johan Deysel
The powerful centre will captain the side from the middle and will need to provide strong leadership to bolster their chances.
Pool B
1st South Africa
When the Springboks emerged as three-time World Champions after a dominant final display over a shell-shocked England, it came as somewhat of a surprise. The tournament had been preceded by possibly their weakest period of test rugby and the championship itself kicked off with an opening defeat to favourites New Zealand before their eventual ascendency. Whilst not the most consistent side on the international scene, they have proved time and again that they are nearly impossible to defeat at their best, and they relish tournament rugby.
2023’s ‘pool of death’ will provide stiff opposition for the reigning champions; requiring victories over World Number 1 side Ireland, mercurial Scotland and an overlooked banana skin in Tonga. Their counterparts in emerald-green will undoubtedly have the backing of many, but I believe the Bok’s air-tight defence, formidable set piece and merciless physicality will be enough to suffocate and bully their opponents into a narrow pool victory. They have the spine of their victorious 2019 outfit still running through the team with the added firepower of Ox N’Che, Andre Esturheizen and Jasper Wiesse gained over this cycle. If they can maintain their highest standards, they could be on their way to pulling away from New Zealand to capture a fourth Rugby World Cup title.
Key player: Willie Le Roux
With the inexperienced Libbok as the only recognised 10 in the South African ranks, Le Roux will be vital to facilitating the Bok’s game management in his second playmaker role from fullback.
2nd Ireland
Andy Farrell has not so much built on the foundations left by Joe Schmidt as used them as a springboard to catapult this Ireland side to heights many would have thought impossible a decade ago. Consistent victories over southern hemisphere giants (including a first series win in New Zealand) and a dominant Grand Slam title earlier this year mean we will see them enter this tournament as the sport’s World Number 1 nation and provide them with the best opportunity to raise the Webb Ellis they have ever experienced.
However, they will have to do it the hard way. The previously indicated toughness of this pool will test and stretch their squad’s depth and character, with only one game likely seen as a victory by default. They have consistently demonstrated tactical astuteness and will face a neck and neck battle with the Springboks to claim top spot in the group. A quarter-final certainty, but an uphill battle awaits, nonetheless.
Key player: Dan Sheehan
Emerging as one of rugby’s finest hookers, Sheehan’s set piece accuracy and dynamic carrying will prove paramount to secure front foot ball and execute Ireland’s intricate game plan.
3rd Scotland
Over the last eight years, Gregor Townsend has forged a Scotland team who play elegant, incisive rugby capable of threatening any side at their best. Unfortunately, their best isn’t seen consistently. They have developed a notorious habit of generating famous victories, particularly in the Six Nations, before following them up with lacklustre outings the very next game and squandering legitimate opportunities of at least challenging for a title. This pattern of performances does not breathe confidence into their RWC chances, especially given their formidable pool stage opposition.
This is largely due to squad depth, as is often the stumbling block for rugby nations with smaller player bases. The likes of Finn Russell, Hamish Watson, Huw Jones and George Turner among others help Scotland boast an undoubtedly elite starting XV, but in world cups where squads are stretched to their limit through short turn-rounds and inevitable injuries, the effectiveness of their wider roster will be exposed, and I believe fall short. They will be a pleasure to watch and are certainly capable of causing an upset, but the quarter-finals may prove a step too far this time out.
Key player: Jamie Ritchie
A prominent leader and hard-working flanker, Ritchie will need to muster all his grit and niggle to keep Scotland competitive against the daunting power of South Africa and Ireland.
4th Tonga
I felt bad placing Tonga so low considering the talent in their ranks, again a victim of this hellish group. The success of Tonga and their Pacific Island counterparts Fiji and Samoa throughout world rugby’s history make them some of the greatest overachievers in all of sport, given their population sizes and lack of infrastructure. Yet, they can simultaneously be seen as never being allowed to reach their full potential as a result of well-publicised under-funding and the harvesting of their best players by larger rugby nations.
However, the revision international eligibility laws mean that players with Tongan (or other national) heritage who have represented other countries can now switch allegiance after a 3-year standdown period. As a result, they have been able to secure the talents of ex New Zealand and Bristol star Charles Piatau, and highly controversial former Wallaby Israel Falou, among others. This added fire power make the Tongans a serious threat to the expected leaders of the group, and we could be in for some very tense fixtures in the following weeks.
Key player: Charles Piatau
When he gets going, the flying fullback has magic in his feet and the ability to carve open the most disciplined defences at will.
5th Romania
Poor Romania. They return to the Rugby World Cup after missing out on the 2019 tournament, only to be met with four brutal and seemingly unwinnable games. A routinely competent outfit in Europe’s second tier competition, their international life is characterised by battling the likes of Spain and Portugal to emerge as Georgia’s main rival and even have one RWC win to their name, coming against Zimbabwe in the Championship’s inaugural outing. Only the most optimistic Romanian fan will be expecting that tally to be added to.
Key player: Ovidiu Cojocaru
Romania’s slim chances will depend on a functioning set piece, orchestrated by hooker Cojocaru.
Pool C
1st Wales
An equally difficult pool to predict for opposite reasons. The natural leaders of this group are experiencing some of the worst form in their history and could leave the door open for some giant-slaying antics.
2023 has been a harrowing year for Welsh Rugby. A torrid Six Nations against the backdrop of turmoil in the WRU, coupled with the shock retirement of legendary players Alun Wyn Jones and Justin Tipuric gives a bleak outlook when considering their World Cup chances.
However, I believe they will have enough about them to at least make the quarter-finals. Warren Gatland will drill them to perform with a competent set piece and robust defence that will be crucial in combating the threat of Fiji and Australia. Test match animals still linger in the Welsh ranks and if ever there was a time for them to re-find form, it is a World Cup campaign. There is hope, but those expecting genuine title challenges akin to Gatland’s previous sides in 2011 and 2019 will be likely disappointed.
Key player: Jack Morgan
Relishing his newly granted role as captain with a commanding performance against England, Morgan’s fierce tackling will lead a defence essential to Welsh hopes.
2nd Fiji
The rise of Fiji as a major player in world rugby has been one of the most joyous stories to witness over recent seasons. Back-to-back gold medals in Olympic Rugby Sevens has inspired the 15-man format to keep improving and thrilling fans around the world as genuine threats rather than entertaining losers. They are a side brimming with confidence and will be ready to take the opportunity presented by a favourable draw and pursue a deep run into this tournament’s elimination rounds.
Combining their signature flair, athleticism and spontaneity with a marked improvement in key areas that were previously lacking; Fiji will seek to capitalise on the the struggling performances of Wales and Australia to force their way out of the pool. Their recent, historic victory over England should be more than enough to strike fear into the hearts of their more decorated counterparts. If they can maintain set piece discipline, they could become a force to be reckoned with.
Key player: Semi Radradra
A terrifying athlete who can do it all; Fiji’s captain and brutish inside centre will create a platform to unleash their freakish backline over the course of the tournament.
3rd Australia
Few times in all sport have we seen such a seismic decline as Australia in international rugby union. Their reign as serial champions in the early days of the professional era seems a lifetime ago and their two World Cup titles an insurmountable goal the current side could only imagine achieving. Aside from flash-in-the-pan moments of resurgence, namely a runner up year in 2015, the once-proud Wallabies have been resigned to plucky underdogs in the majority of Tier 1 fixtures and support for the national team has dwindled to the point of crisis.
This was not entirely unpredictable. Despite the illustrious history, rugby union has always remained a niche sport in Australia; subsiding to the immense popularity of cricket, AFL and rugby league. Without the expectation of world glory to entice fringe audiences, the sport has suffered a demise in viewership and, subsequently, funding. One need only compare the attendance figures of Super Rugby Australia to equivalent club fixtures around the globe to surmise where problems lie, and so far, few solutions have been presented.
With that being said, the Wallabies have continuously punched above their weight in the international arena. They have produced tremendous athletes and individuals who have propelled the national side through this turmoil to remain competitive when they seemingly had no right to. However, 2023 has seen them reach new lows under the guidance of Eddie Jones in his second run at managing the national team. He seems to have brought the same failing elements that plagued his later tenure with England back to Australia, and the decision to leave out test match veterans like Michael Hooper and Quade Cooper means the Wallabies will be lacking leadership as well as form in the most important moments. It is a great shame, but I don’t foresee this once-great nation reaching the quarter-finals, let alone competing for the championship.
Key player: Taniela Tupou
The ‘Tongan Hulk’ is a frighteningly powerful tighthead prop who will need to muster all his marauding abilities to make Australia competitive with their superior counterparts.
4th Georgia
Georgia have long held the likely unwanted title of ‘best of the rest’ in international rugby. Along with the Pacific Island nations and (previously) the likes of Japan and Italy, they have long been perceived as one of the few Tier 2 sides capable of causing upsets at a major competition. Robust scrummaging and mauling combined with accurate kicking tactics made the Georgians efficient at starving the opposition of possession and territory, and levelling the constant disparity created by a perpetual talent deficit.
They were often cited as a comparison to Italy when debating potential Six Nations reform and, for a time, looked capable of breaching the ranks of the international elite. Despite a shock win over a dismal Wales in 2022, these conversations have since subsided with the improvement of nations like Fiji, Japan and Italy coupled with Georgia’s respective decline. The retirement of key figures like Mamuka Gorgodze did little to help the cause but the fact remains that, while competent, they pose no significant threat to stronger teams, and this will be the case when the tournament begins. Never a pushover, but a quarter-final appearance still seems beyond their capabilities.
Key player: Luka Matkava
The dependable fly half will need to maintain his accurate goal-kicking for Georgia to capitalise on the limited opportunities presented in each game.
5th Portugal
After Spain were removed from the tournament following a near identical eligibility breach that produced the same outcome in 2019, Portugal were given the opportunity of a Rugby World Cup appearance for only the second time since its inception. They last featured in 2007, winning no games and most will be expecting a similar turnout here. Anything else would be seen as an all-time tournament upset, and a water-shed moment for Portuguese rugby.
Key player: Mike Tadjer
As the only member of the squad to apply his trade for an elite-level club (Perpignan), the hooker’s experience will be crucial to their slim chances.
Pool D
1st Argentina
Once a respected outlier on the fringes of rugby’s hierarchy, Argentina arrive in France as a legitimate contender and potential tournament dark horse. Since the last RWC, their belt is brimming with the heavy scalps of New Zealand, England and Australia; mammoth victories which will inject the Los Pumas faithful with hope of an achievement that seemed unthinkable 10 years ago: the Webb Ellis trophy paraded through the streets of Buenos Aires. It remains an outside chance, but a chance nonetheless and this passionate squad will feel closer than ever to emulating their footballing counterparts this autumn.
The team is built on a bruising forward pack and air-tight fundamentals; led from the front by world class captain Julian Montoya, controversial back row Paulo Matera and ill-disciplined yet ferocious lock Thomas Lavanini. Former Wallabies boss Michael Chieka has galvanised a talented back line into a smooth outfit as technical as they are elegant, and this combination makes them capable of beating any side on their day. The threat of Argentina will keep the tournament favourites on their toes, and the unbalanced pool draw gives them a wonderful chance of making a serious impact in this year’s championship.
Key player: Emiliano Bofelli
An unlikely combination of winger and goal-kicker: Bofelli is as adept with the ball in hand as he is off the tee. Don’t be surprised to see a huge proportion of their points fall under his name this year.
2nd England
What is left to say about this England side? The shock decision by the RFU to sack Eddie Jones last November and replace him with the inexperienced Steve Borthwick a mere 9 months before a World Cup campaign is one that has come back to bite them. After experiencing resounding success in the early stages of his England career (a period which included three Six Nations titles, a whitewash tour of Australia and a World Cup final), Eddie struggled to find consistency in the twilight of his tenure. Good wins would be followed by shock losses and this cycle continued until his eventual dismissal. However, after seeing what Borthwick has mustered in response, fans might well be praying for inconsistency to be their largest concern.
England look rudderless. I have watched every game in Borthwick’s reign, and I would still find it challenging to describe their playstyle. The set piece is not dominant, the attack is lacklustre and the kicking game pails in comparison to their rivals. Previously world class players have seemingly disappeared from performances and leadership appears in short supply. It is hard to believe it was only four short years ago that an England team pummelled New Zealand into submission in a coming-of-age semi-final, an England team bearing much of the same starting XV which just lost to Fiji at home.
These are desperate times for English rugby, so why am I tipping them to make a quarter-final? The answer is mostly logistical; they will benefit from a less-competitive group than other previously mentioned examples from across the tournament. While I expect Argentina to overcome them, wins against Japan, Samoa and Chile still seem achievable and this will remain the expectation. They will scrape into the knockout stages and be swiftly dispatched by the first elite rugby nation they encounter.
Key player: Courtney Lawes
England have been routinely out-muscled in recent matches, and stand-in captain Lawes will need to roll back the years and deliver some bullying tackles to level the playing field.
3rd Samoa
Samoa will be chomping at the bit to get stuck into the tournament and will look to capitalise on a tame pool to reach the quarter-finals for the third time in their history. Similarly to Fiji and Tonga, they have been bolstered by allegiance switches and arrive in France boasting a strong squad with quality running through it. Their recent narrow loss to Ireland displays their clear ability to mix it with the best teams and will be targeting a wounded England as their best chance of escaping the group.
Bristol Bear favourites Chris Vui and Steven Luatua will lead the Samaons from the front, while the experience of ex-Wallaby Christian Lealiifano will help guide their game management in close matches. 2023 could be a kind year to Pacific Island nations and the World Cup would be all the better for it.
Key player: Lima Sopoaga
His control and kicking game in the 10 jersey will ensure Samoa capitalise on platform and convert chances to points.
4th Japan
It was with a heavy heart that I placed Japan so low in this group, but circumstances left little other choice. In 2015, Japan pulled off what is considered by many to be the sport’s greatest ever upset when they toppled the mighty Springboks in front of a frenzied Brighton crowd, having no previous World Cup wins to their name. This was followed by dazzling victories over Ireland and Scotland on home soil in 2019; cementing their place in the quarter-finals where they were eventually dispatched by a vengeful South Africa. It appeared that they had broken into rugby’s elite; establishing themselves as a Tier 1 nation and enticing fans with the potential of what the side was capable of with the funding and infrastructure a wealthy nation like Japan could provide in the long term.
Alas, the four years that followed have not been kind to Japanese rugby. With the disbanding of their sole Super Rugby franchise The Sunwolves, COVID-related funding issues and limited game time, Japanese rugby has seen a gloomy decline after the unbridled joy of 2019. The form of the international side has fallen off a cliff, and they will have to find some huge performances to challenge the other contenders of this pool. I would never write them off, but they seem a shadow of their former selves.
Key player: Kazuki Himeno
With Michael Leitch almost certainly playing in his last World Cup, he has already passed the mantle of captaincy down to his back-row compatriot Himeno; a powerful and skilful number eight who often gets overlooked.
5th Chile
Chile already boast this World Cup’s greatest Cindarella story and the tournament has not even begun. Appearing in their first RWC, they performed well beyond their means to overcome tournament veterans Canada and USA in the Americas qualifying and shake up the landscape of international rugby. While victory is unlikely, their mere presence is a huge success and I hope their players enjoy every second of it.
Key player: Rodrigo Fernandez
Chile’s best player and talismanic figure, Fernandez pulls all the strings from midfield and will relish his opportunity on the biggest stage.
The Knockout Stages
Based on my predicted pool finishes, here is a quick overview of how I think the knockout stages may play out, all the way to the final.
Quarter Finals
South Africa vs New Zealand: South Africa win.
A game that feels wrong to be so early in the tournament, but is likely to occur nonetheless. New Zealand may have rediscovered form, but South Africa just demonstrated the danger of their power game under the Twickenham lights, blowing the All Blacks away. I think the Boks will muscle their way over the line again.
France vs Ireland: France win.
Another quarter-final exit looms for Ireland, though under very different circumstances than before. The number 1 and 2 side in the world, once again I believe France’s home advantage and the cheat code of Antonne Dupont will see them pip the favourites.
Wales vs England: Wales win.
A battle of who will play less poorly. I think Wales will possess enough grit and discipline to overcome England, but it could equally go the other way.
Argentina vs Fiji: Argentina win.
This could be an absolute classic of a quarter-final, and one I hope we get to see. Discipline vs flair, control vs spontaneity, this will be a wonderful clash of styles that I see Argentina narrowly edging in a close match.
Semi Finals
Wales vs France: France win.
A simple call here, as France are currently a class above Wales. The Welsh will battle as hard as ever, but I see nothing here to prevent Les Bleus from storming into their fourth World Cup final.
South Africa vs Argentina: South Africa win.
As much as I would love to tip Argentina for this match, realistically I don’t see the Boks stumbling at this hurdle. Despite coming close twice in this year’s Rugby Championship, Argentina don’t quite possess the necessary resources to overcome the South African physicality.
Final
France vs South Africa: South Africa win.
The hardest game to call in the tournament, as both sides excel at many similar aspects. They have the best defences in the world, the best packs in the world, the best kicking games in the world. They are the only teams capable of nullifying the others greatest weapons and I envisage a ferocious contest fought over millimetres of gain to decide the recipient of the ultimate prize. I almost flipped a coin to decide it, but a nagging voice tells me South Africa will emerge as unprecedented four-time World Champions and break French hearts in front of the Parisian faithful.
Do you agree with our Charlie? Let us know in the comments or tag us @sheffvulcans